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Nice W Bottom...
Methods and Philosophy
3 days ago
Monday, March 30, 2009
Sunday, March 29, 2009
Dylan Ratigan leaves Fast Money and CNBC, Doooh!
A comment from another blog that I thought was funny as hell.
Ratigan is leaving? That’s the last time Maw and I will ever watch that show. Even when Melissa “Tweety Bird” Lee was there, I’d throw an old slipper at the fucking tube. Still like Macke and Finerman. Finerman started out utterly inept, must have had a brain transplant because she started making sense. If we aren’t watching that show, nobody will be. The very fact that they were airing Zach “the Middle Stooge” Karabell and Taco Joe “Deer in the Headlights” “Goldman’s is Best of Breed” Terranova was a sign the end was nigh.
Ratigan actually has a fucking brain and some semblance of outrage.
I am going to miss old Dylan. I honestly believe he made that show. I think his only replacement could be Melissa Lee (not a chance in hell) Rebecca Diamond.....
Friday, March 27, 2009
Price by Volume tool used by Brian Shannon
This tool is what Brian Shannon uses which is similar to the VWAP (Volume Weighted Average Price) which can be used on the website BigCharts.com (witch I often use because it is free and handy).
Brian showed us how to use this tool to find possible areas of support and resistance. You can use it for different time frames and frequency...
Basically you go to bigcharts.com and pull up a chart. For my example I am using symbol GFG. For the first chart I used the 6 month time frame and the daily frequency. For the second chart I used the 5 day time frame and the 15 min frequency.
Looking at the charts you can see the areas with the highest volume by price became support and resistance. This tool can be helpful to find entries and stops when trading a stock....
Did some scans tonight.... GRO, MXM, STEM
I briefly did some scans tonight and found some charts that caught my attention...
The first one is Agria Corp (NYSE) symbol GRO, I noticed the bullish breakout from the pennant pattern...
The next one might be a reach but can be followed for a possible trade.... MAXXAM Inc (NYSE-Alt) symbol MXM (I did not look at the spread on this stock, but you might want to check that out if you want to trade it, extremely low floater if yahoo finance is correct) this one might be fun just to watch just to confirm TA later on :D
The last one did not really jump out at me, but it could be added to your watchlist as well is Stemcells Inc (NASDAQ GM) symbol STEM, also EMKR if it can break and hold the 50dma, it does have increasing volume which is good.
I will do more scans later on this weekend....
IQ HEDGE (QAI) - First U.S. listed hedge fund replication ETF
IndexIQ Launches First U.S. Listed Hedge Fund Replication Exchange-Traded Fund
NEW YORK--(BUSINESS WIRE)--The first-ever U.S.-listed hedge fund replication Exchange-Traded Fund (ETF) has been introduced by alternative investment ETF pioneer IndexIQ, it was announced today (Wednesday March 25, 2009, 2:01 pm EDT).
The IQ® Hedge Multi-Strategy Tracker ETF (NYSE Arca: QAI) seeks to replicate, before fees and expenses, the returns of the IQ® Hedge Multi-Strategy Index. The Index is designed to capture the risk-adjusted return characteristics of the collective hedge fund universe using multiple hedge fund investment styles, including long/short equity, global macro, market neutral, event-driven, fixed income arbitrage, and emerging markets.
The ETF-based approach to hedge fund replication offers a number of advantages to investors, including intra-day liquidity, portfolio transparency, lower fees than the typical hedge fund, the elimination of manager-specific risk, and real-time pricing. The IQ® Hedge Multi-Strategy Tracker ETF uses a wide variety of liquid ETFs currently in the market to build the underlying portfolio and does not invest in hedge funds.
“The IQ® Hedge Multi-Strategy Tracker ETF brings together two of the most significant developments in the investment business over the last several years – the growing importance of alternative investments and the convenience, low cost, liquidity and transparency of ETFs,” said Adam Patti, chief executive officer at IndexIQ.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/IndexIQ-Launches-First-US-bw-14743895.html
NEW YORK--(BUSINESS WIRE)--The first-ever U.S.-listed hedge fund replication Exchange-Traded Fund (ETF) has been introduced by alternative investment ETF pioneer IndexIQ, it was announced today (Wednesday March 25, 2009, 2:01 pm EDT).
The IQ® Hedge Multi-Strategy Tracker ETF (NYSE Arca: QAI) seeks to replicate, before fees and expenses, the returns of the IQ® Hedge Multi-Strategy Index. The Index is designed to capture the risk-adjusted return characteristics of the collective hedge fund universe using multiple hedge fund investment styles, including long/short equity, global macro, market neutral, event-driven, fixed income arbitrage, and emerging markets.
The ETF-based approach to hedge fund replication offers a number of advantages to investors, including intra-day liquidity, portfolio transparency, lower fees than the typical hedge fund, the elimination of manager-specific risk, and real-time pricing. The IQ® Hedge Multi-Strategy Tracker ETF uses a wide variety of liquid ETFs currently in the market to build the underlying portfolio and does not invest in hedge funds.
“The IQ® Hedge Multi-Strategy Tracker ETF brings together two of the most significant developments in the investment business over the last several years – the growing importance of alternative investments and the convenience, low cost, liquidity and transparency of ETFs,” said Adam Patti, chief executive officer at IndexIQ.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/IndexIQ-Launches-First-US-bw-14743895.html
Sold some long positions today (SPY, USO)
Today I sold my long positions in my SPY and USO. We may have a little more upside but I think we have moved too far too fast and I want to take a little profits. If you look at my entries for both SPY and the USO, I think I may have pegged the bottom for both of these ETFs for 2009 and I contemplated holding onto them for longer term but I am going to take profits where I can get them and move on to the next trade. I do not think we will test the recent market lows but we will have a significant enough retrace that I will be ready with cash in hand. I have yet to play the short side on anything. I honestly believe that if you want to truly be successful in this market you really need to be able to play both sides. I have a good understanding of the inverse ETF's, I am just more comfortable playing trades on the long side. In do time I dare say, lol.
SPY: In at 68.95, sold today at 82.06
USO: In at 22.93, sold today at 30.94
SPY: In at 68.95, sold today at 82.06
USO: In at 22.93, sold today at 30.94
Thursday, March 26, 2009
Looking for Corporate Bond exposure for your portfolio, but want to use a simple ETF; here are some choices...
iShares iBoxx $ Invest Grade Corp Bond (LQD)
The investment seeks investment results that correspond generally to the price and yield performance of a segment of the U.S. investment-grade corporate bond market as defined by the iBoxx $ Liquid Investment-Grade index. The fund typically invests at least 90% of assets in the bonds of the underlying index, and at least 95% of assets in investment grade corporate bonds. It may also invest in bonds not included in the underlying index. The fund may also invest up to 5% of assets in repurchase agreements collateralized by U.S. government obligations, and in cash and cash equivalents. It is nondiversified.
iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corporate Bd (HYG)
The investment seeks to replicate the performance, net of expenses, of the iBoxx $ Liquid High-Yield index. The fund invests at least 90% of assets in securities that comprise the index. However, it may invest up to 20% of assets in certain futures, options and swap contracts, cash and cash equivalents, and in bonds not included within the index. The index is a rules-based index consisting of the most liquid and tradable U.S. dollar-denominated, high-yield corporate bonds for sale in the U.S. The fund is nondiversified.
SPDR Barclays Capital High Yield Bond (JNK)
The investment seeks results that correspond generally to the price and yield performance, before fees and expenses, of the Lehman Brothers High Yield Very Liquid index. The fund normally invests at least 80% of total assets in securities that comprise its benchmark index. It may also invest its other assets in securities not included in its benchmark index. The fund is nondiversified.
So what happened with CBG (CB Richard Ellis Group Inc.)
The stock price of CB Richard Ellis Group Inc., the second-largest commercial real estate firm in St. Louis, saw a sharp upturn Wednesday after the company renegotiated its agreement with lenders to give the company more flexibility during the weak commercial real estate market.
The company said Wednesday the changes allow for a higher maximum leverage ratio, a lower minimum interest coverage ratio and other modifications.
J.P. Morgan upgraded the company from “overweight” to “neutral” as a result of the changes.
Wednesday, March 25, 2009
Jeff Macke and the not so informative rant....
Jeff Macke is a founder and president of Macke Asset Management (MAM). He has been a professional investor for the last 10 years and ran a successful hedge fund from 1999-2004. Macke contributes to CNBC's "Fast Money" and is also the West Coast editor and a contributor to financial web site Minyanville.com.
Like many others, I have watched Fast Money for a while and have come to the conclusion that all Jeff Macke does lately is spute out meaningless rants about companies and does not offer any constructive opinions regarding the direction of companies or thier equity. While sometimes amusing, he has just become a bore on the show. Pete the caveman Najarian as innocent and nice as he seems (especially when he is on the show wearing his tie and button down shirt and a pair of shorts) is just not used to his fullest because the show does not really highlight options trading, and pretty boy floyd (Tim Seymour) who loves the emerging markets every now and then has relevant information.
Like many others, I have watched Fast Money for a while and have come to the conclusion that all Jeff Macke does lately is spute out meaningless rants about companies and does not offer any constructive opinions regarding the direction of companies or thier equity. While sometimes amusing, he has just become a bore on the show. Pete the caveman Najarian as innocent and nice as he seems (especially when he is on the show wearing his tie and button down shirt and a pair of shorts) is just not used to his fullest because the show does not really highlight options trading, and pretty boy floyd (Tim Seymour) who loves the emerging markets every now and then has relevant information.
lately, I have been bored with this:
and have been fascinated by this:
Yes I am talking about Rebecca Diamond (Gomez) and not the lame ass Corey (I think his name is)
Wow look at that BAC price, guess the photo is a little old, lol.
Long term holding: PCX
This week I bought some PCX (Patriot Coal Corp NYSE). I am averaged in at 4.71Patriot Coal Corporation is the third largest producer and marketer of coal in the eastern United States, with 15 active mining complexes in Appalachia and the Illinois Basin. The Company ships to domestic and international electric utilities, industrial users and metallurgical coal customers, and controls approximately 1.8 billion tons of proven and probable coal reserves.
Patriot Coal Results for the Quarter and Year Ended December 31, 2008
Highlights:
Revenues up 113% in fourth quarter and 54% for full year
Significant progress on Magnum integration and mine rationalization plan
Idling of Jupiter, Remington & Black Oak mines
Expected 2009 sales volumes between 36 and 38 million tons
Reduced 2009 capital expenditures to reflect market conditions
I know Obama is against coal due to the environmental effects, however we have to realize that it will take a while for his renewable energy sources to come to fruition in a meaningful sense. America has plenty of coal and it is a cheap power source and China is building coal plants out the ying yang.
Bottom line is that I did not have any coal stocks in my portfolio and the fundies looked pretty good on PCX so I started a position this week. Plus it has been beatin down like a dirty red headed step child.... (no offense to the ginger kids)
Sunday, March 8, 2009
Weekend Scans
Did some scans this weekend and found some charts that you may want to check out from a bullish stand point...
ATVI
BIG (the big volume spike I think was a Cramer effect)
ES
FCX (Seems like everyone is piling in on this play for copper and what not, I was already long)
VVTV (Penny stock)
TLB (Inverted Head and Shoulders)
BRP (looking at the nice volume spike and the slow stoch, I think this one is a good candidate as a bottom bouncer)
I am sure all the hoopla on Monday will be about the biotechs, especially anything related to stem cell research...
Good luck and happy trading!
ATVI
BIG (the big volume spike I think was a Cramer effect)
ES
FCX (Seems like everyone is piling in on this play for copper and what not, I was already long)
VVTV (Penny stock)
TLB (Inverted Head and Shoulders)
BRP (looking at the nice volume spike and the slow stoch, I think this one is a good candidate as a bottom bouncer)
I am sure all the hoopla on Monday will be about the biotechs, especially anything related to stem cell research...
Good luck and happy trading!
Saturday, March 7, 2009
Tuesday, March 3, 2009
Watch for a cup and handle breakout on LFT
Watch for a cup and handle breakout on LFT (Longtop Financial Technologies). I was reading through their F3Q09 report and they seem to be doing quite well...http://seekingalpha.com/article/121351-longtop-financial-technologies-ltd-f3q09-qtr-end-12-31-08-earnings-call-transcript?source=yahoo
Pretty good fundies as well...
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=LFT
Saturday, February 28, 2009
Fool in the Shower
Fool in the Shower is a term that was coined by Milton Freidman, an American Nobel Prize-winning economist, who advocated a marketplace with minimal government intervention. His policy prescriptions maintained that any stimulus to the economy should be done slowly, rather than all at once because it takes time to determine the effects of the changes. For example, a change in the federal funds rate takes about six months to fully integrate into the economy.
He compared the situation to taking a shower. A fool gets into a cold shower before the water has had time to warm up. Rather than waiting for the temperature to adjust, the fool turns the hot water all the way up and eventually scalds himself.
Can you say Inflation!
Buffet in his annual letter to share holders released today made this remark:
Some inflation plays would be:
Long Treasury Inflation Protected Securities, or TIPS:
TIP (iShares Lehman TIPS Bond Fund)
or IPE (SPDR Barclays Capital TIPS ETF)
or WIP (The SPDR DB International Government Inflation-Protected Bond ETF which tracks non-U.S. bonds)
Long Gold or Gold Miners:
GLD (SPDR Gold Shares)
or GDX (Van Eck Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF)
Choose one or the other of the following as your short play. I would rather short the TLT.
Long TBT Ultrashort 20+ Year Treasury Proshares
Short TLT (iShares Barclays 20+ Year Treas Bond)
Right now we have deflation but this is something to think about for the future.....
He compared the situation to taking a shower. A fool gets into a cold shower before the water has had time to warm up. Rather than waiting for the temperature to adjust, the fool turns the hot water all the way up and eventually scalds himself.
Can you say Inflation!
Buffet in his annual letter to share holders released today made this remark:
Commenting on the federal government's actions to resolve the economic crisis, Buffett said: "Economic medicine that was previously meted out by the cupful has recently been dispensed by the barrel. These once-unthinkable dosages will almost certainly bring on unwelcome aftereffects."
Inflation is likely to be one such effect, Buffett said.
Some inflation plays would be:
Long Treasury Inflation Protected Securities, or TIPS:
TIP (iShares Lehman TIPS Bond Fund)
or IPE (SPDR Barclays Capital TIPS ETF)
or WIP (The SPDR DB International Government Inflation-Protected Bond ETF which tracks non-U.S. bonds)
Long Gold or Gold Miners:
GLD (SPDR Gold Shares)
or GDX (Van Eck Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF)
Choose one or the other of the following as your short play. I would rather short the TLT.
Long TBT Ultrashort 20+ Year Treasury Proshares
Short TLT (iShares Barclays 20+ Year Treas Bond)
Right now we have deflation but this is something to think about for the future.....
Friday, February 27, 2009
Letter from Omaha
Warren Buffett's annual letter to Berkshire Hathaway shareholders will be released Saturday morning at 8 am ESTBerkshire class A shares have dropped 44% in the past year
Berkshire is expected to report quarterly operating earnings of $1,486.50 per Class A share
Within the past year, Buffett bought $5 billion in the preferred stock of investment bank Goldman Sachs Group
He also invested $3 billion in preferred shares issued by General Electric Co.
The deals came with warrants that give Berkshire the right to buy 43.5 million Goldman shares at $115 each and 134.8 million shares of GE at $22.25 each. These contracts expire in October 2013
Goldman and GE are paying Berkshire 10% a year in dividends for five years
Berkshire also recently invested in bonds issued by companies including Tiffany & Co. and Harley-Davidson Inc. These securities pay 10% to 15% a year.
MOS Buyout?
Talk on MOS is that Cargill will buy remainder of company for price in $58-60 range; Cargill owns approx. 64% of MOS
Thursday, February 26, 2009
SNWL
Breakout.....
MF and DITC charts kind of peaked my interest if you want to check them out....
CPRK for you penny players.... (I do not know if you may have noticed this but allot of times when a commodity is hot it usually trickles down from the majors to the juniors within a couple days or weeks and you can usually catch the juniors before the big runs. I have been hearing alot about copper lately and now Copper King Mining Corp is getting some action. It usually does not matter if it is some crap penny stock; if it has the hot commodity in it's name it still has a good chance of running just because of the name)
Wednesday, February 25, 2009
ARTG
ARTG looks bullish for the next couple days to breakout from the consolidation from the gap up.
Tuesday, February 24, 2009
Some bullish moves for today
| Symbol | Last | Chg(%) | Vol |
| S | 3.58 | 8.16 | 74967000 |
| F | 2 | 15.61 | 33935300 |
| RF | 3.29 | 22.3 | 28267500 |
| Q | 3.46 | 3.28 | 21313700 |
| MI | 4.51 | 25.98 | 13692900 |
| AMR | 4.72 | 7.76 | 9788700 |
| GCI | 4.08 | 11.48 | 8724600 |
| SNV | 3.06 | 17.69 | 8499700 |
| FRE | 0.54 | 8 | 8404900 |
| MGM | 4.45 | 4.22 | 6423700 |
| SFI | 1.53 | 56.12 | 5480200 |
| PDS | 2.44 | 2.52 | 3063500 |
| SWHC | 3.53 | 15.74 | 3014900 |
| CNB | 0.51 | 21.43 | 2558100 |
| PKD | 1.71 | 33.59 | 2420700 |
| CROX | 1.37 | 19.13 | 2197700 |
| CNO | 1.54 | 30.51 | 2060400 |
| PEI | 4.38 | 19.35 | 1615500 |
| MPEL | 3.2 | 31.15 | 1480200 |
| CRBC | 0.94 | 17.5 | 1424000 |
| AOI | 3.52 | 6.02 | 943100 |
| BWS | 3.97 | 6.43 | 868100 |
| SBGI | 1.14 | 14 | 862200 |
| FTBK | 1.73 | 42.98 | 765800 |
| AXL | 1.14 | 31.03 | 730100 |
| CEGE | 0.26 | 13.04 | 702400 |
| ARCC | 3.93 | 11.97 | 687700 |
| KKD | 1.41 | 10.16 | 650500 |
| BGP | 0.61 | 15.09 | 571100 |
| FED | 0.46 | 31.43 | 516500 |
| LEE | 0.48 | 4.35 | 492100 |
| UCBI | 3.87 | 14.5 | 488100 |
| BAC-E | 4.6 | 33.33 | 456800 |
| MOD | 1.02 | 13.33 | 453600 |
| CCRT | 2.2 | 13.99 | 452400 |
| PIR | 0.41 | 46.43 | 429700 |
| QRCP | 0.27 | 17.39 | 305900 |
| ICOG | 0.46 | 58.62 | 241500 |
| MEG | 1.9 | 13.77 | 162900 |
| JRT | 2.96 | 10.45 | 100100 |
Monday, February 23, 2009
AXP Pays to close account
Growing credit card defaults have encouraged American Express (AXP) to pay selected cardholders $300 if they pay off and close their American Express accounts by April 30th.
Saturday, February 21, 2009
Long Term Holdings: MSFT
This week for my long term holdings I bought some MSFT, or Mr. Softy as Cramer would say.....
Average Position: 17.99
Every week I add to my long term holdings and I will post what I bought....
CHS Third times a charm.....
CHS bounced for the third time against the trendline and looks poised to break through resistance around 4.48
I like to see the slow stoch like that with higher highs and higher lows, looks bullish.
Keep an eye on SEH for a possible ascending triangle breakout
Bullish divergence, possible ascending triangle breakout in the works. one to watch....
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