Fool in the Shower

Fool in the Shower is a term that was coined by Milton Freidman, an American Nobel Prize-winning economist, who advocated a marketplace with minimal government intervention. His policy prescriptions maintained that any stimulus to the economy should be done slowly, rather than all at once because it takes time to determine the effects of the changes. For example, a change in the federal funds rate takes about six months to fully integrate into the economy.

He compared the situation to taking a shower. A fool gets into a cold shower before the water has had time to warm up. Rather than waiting for the temperature to adjust, the fool turns the hot water all the way up and eventually scalds himself.

Can you say Inflation!

Buffet in his annual letter to share holders released today made this remark:

Commenting on the federal government's actions to resolve the economic crisis, Buffett said: "Economic medicine that was previously meted out by the cupful has recently been dispensed by the barrel. These once-unthinkable dosages will almost certainly bring on unwelcome aftereffects."

Inflation is likely to be one such effect, Buffett said.

Some inflation plays would be:

Long Treasury Inflation Protected Securities, or TIPS:

TIP (iShares Lehman TIPS Bond Fund)
or IPE (SPDR Barclays Capital TIPS ETF)
or WIP (The SPDR DB International Government Inflation-Protected Bond ETF which tracks non-U.S. bonds)

Long Gold or Gold Miners:

GLD (SPDR Gold Shares)
or GDX (Van Eck Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF)

Choose one or the other of the following as your short play. I would rather short the TLT.

Long TBT Ultrashort 20+ Year Treasury Proshares

Short TLT (iShares Barclays 20+ Year Treas Bond)

Right now we have deflation but this is something to think about for the future.....

Letter To Berkshire Hathaway Shareholders

http://www.berkshirehathaway.com/letters/2008ltr.pdf

Ivanhoe Mines Ltd. Symbol IVN

Another chart to add to your watchlist is symbol LSE

Letter from Omaha

Warren Buffett's annual letter to Berkshire Hathaway shareholders will be released Saturday morning at 8 am EST

Berkshire class A shares have dropped 44% in the past year

Berkshire is expected to report quarterly operating earnings of $1,486.50 per Class A share

Within the past year, Buffett bought $5 billion in the preferred stock of investment bank Goldman Sachs Group

He also invested $3 billion in preferred shares issued by General Electric Co.

The deals came with warrants that give Berkshire the right to buy 43.5 million Goldman shares at $115 each and 134.8 million shares of GE at $22.25 each. These contracts expire in October 2013

Goldman and GE are paying Berkshire 10% a year in dividends for five years

Berkshire also recently invested in bonds issued by companies including Tiffany & Co. and Harley-Davidson Inc. These securities pay 10% to 15% a year.

Bullish Call flow in AUO (AU Optronics Corp), Bearish Put flow in IAT (US Regional Banks)

http://whatstrading.com/

MOS Buyout?

Talk on MOS is that Cargill will buy remainder of company for price in $58-60 range; Cargill owns approx. 64% of MOS

SNWL

Breakout.....

MF and DITC charts kind of peaked my interest if you want to check them out....

CPRK for you penny players.... (I do not know if you may have noticed this but allot of times when a commodity is hot it usually trickles down from the majors to the juniors within a couple days or weeks and you can usually catch the juniors before the big runs. I have been hearing alot about copper lately and now Copper King Mining Corp is getting some action. It usually does not matter if it is some crap penny stock; if it has the hot commodity in it's name it still has a good chance of running just because of the name)

ARTG

ARTG looks bullish for the next couple days to breakout from the consolidation from the gap up.

Mr. Bull goes to Washington

Some bullish moves for today

Symbol	Last	Chg(%)	Vol
S	3.58	8.16	74967000
F	2	15.61	33935300
RF	3.29	22.3	28267500
Q	3.46	3.28	21313700
MI	4.51	25.98	13692900
AMR	4.72	7.76	9788700
GCI	4.08	11.48	8724600
SNV	3.06	17.69	8499700
FRE	0.54	8	8404900
MGM	4.45	4.22	6423700
SFI	1.53	56.12	5480200
PDS	2.44	2.52	3063500
SWHC	3.53	15.74	3014900
CNB	0.51	21.43	2558100
PKD	1.71	33.59	2420700
CROX	1.37	19.13	2197700
CNO	1.54	30.51	2060400
PEI	4.38	19.35	1615500
MPEL	3.2	31.15	1480200
CRBC	0.94	17.5	1424000
AOI	3.52	6.02	943100
BWS	3.97	6.43	868100
SBGI	1.14	14	862200
FTBK	1.73	42.98	765800
AXL	1.14	31.03	730100
CEGE	0.26	13.04	702400
ARCC	3.93	11.97	687700
KKD	1.41	10.16	650500
BGP	0.61	15.09	571100
FED	0.46	31.43	516500
LEE	0.48	4.35	492100
UCBI	3.87	14.5	488100
BAC-E	4.6	33.33	456800
MOD	1.02	13.33	453600
CCRT	2.2	13.99	452400
PIR	0.41	46.43	429700
QRCP	0.27	17.39	305900
ICOG	0.46	58.62	241500
MEG	1.9	13.77	162900
JRT	2.96	10.45	100100

AXP Pays to close account

Growing credit card defaults have encouraged American Express (AXP) to pay selected cardholders $300 if they pay off and close their American Express accounts by April 30th.

SWHC Breakout

SWHC had a nice breakout to the upside on good volume....

Long Term Holdings: MSFT

This week for my long term holdings I bought some MSFT, or Mr. Softy as Cramer would say.....

Average Position: 17.99

Every week I add to my long term holdings and I will post what I bought....

CHS Third times a charm.....

CHS bounced for the third time against the trendline and looks poised to break through resistance around 4.48

I like to see the slow stoch like that with higher highs and higher lows, looks bullish.

Keep an eye on SEH for a possible ascending triangle breakout

Bullish divergence, possible ascending triangle breakout in the works. one to watch....

END with a W Bottom

Nice W Bottom...

Looks bullish to continue the trend in the short term....